Despite the fact I think the Super Delegate system is structurally flawed, I have decided that it will not play a role in deciding the Democratic nominee. I happened upon this realization last night, just before dinner. Here's my thinking on this:
There are essentially three potential outcomes at the end of the primaries.
1) Obama wins the popular vote AND has the most pledged delegates
2) Clinton wins the popular vote AND has the most pledged delegates
3) The two candidates split, with one winning the popular vote and the other winning the most pledged delegates.
The reality the outcome number three will not occur seems to becoming more and more clear all the time. For example see here and here . I suppose it is still possible, but this seems like an extreme corner case.
That leaves outcomes one and two. In either of those instances the result is the same. As long as one person takes both the popular and pledged delegate victories than the Super Delegates will give that candidate the nomination. Irrespective of who the winner is, it seems fair to say that the loser and their supporters will be told to accept the results. This makes sense in many ways. Most importantly, it makes sense emotionally. At the end of the day, after all the votes are counted and your side lost, then you can come to grips with it. Call it the "We did our best, but our best wasn't good enough" syndrome. Eventually, most of these people would come around to support the official nominee.
The reverse, however, would not be possible. If the Super Delegates go against the popular vote and pledged delegates it would lead to the untenable position of the party leaders going against the rank and file. The Super Delegates may be self-important, but they are not delusional. They realize that neither they, nor their chosen candidate would survive the mutiny that this would engender. It would mean sure defeat at the polls in November and most likely cost the Super Delegates in their individual political endeavors.
This of course assumes that Florida and Michigan are counted in some way that satisfies everyone's concerns about the primaries there. I realize that this is a big if, but I am confident that in the end the Super Delegates will not have the influence that the media is currently assigning to them.
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Except that Obama could hold on to his lead in the popular and pledged delegate vote but be weakened by a surging HRC, who may have won the majority of both in the April, May and June contests. She then makes the case that Obama is not electable as is apparent by his loss of momentum and challenges super Ds to do their duty, which is to vote for the strongest general election candidate, which is her.
I agree with you that this will almost certainly not happen, but, I'm just sayin'...
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